The CEO of one of Switzerland's oldest crypto-financial institutions is warning investors to prepare for a major systemic shock.

Andrej Majcen, CEO of Bitcoin Suisse, told interviewers that a global financial crisis within the next three to five years is not unrealistic. He believes structural forces including AI-driven job displacement, rising white-collar unemployment, and unsustainable public debt trajectories could trigger the next major breakdown according to Bitcoin Sistemi.

His forecast arrives at a moment when mainstream institutions are projecting modest but stable global growth through 2026 and 2027. The disconnect raises a question that market participants should take seriously: which view is right?

The Case for Crisis

Majcen's thesis rests on two pillars.

First, the rapid deployment of artificial intelligence is disrupting labour markets faster than economies can absorb. Unlike previous automation waves that primarily affected manufacturing and blue-collar roles, the current AI acceleration is hitting white-collar employment directly. Legal research, financial analysis, software development, and content creation are all seeing productivity gains that may translate into headcount reductions.

If those job losses materialise at scale without corresponding job creation in new sectors, consumer spending would contract, credit conditions would tighten, and a recessionary spiral becomes plausible.

Second, sovereign debt levels across advanced economies remain historically elevated. The United States is running budget deficits of 6-7% of GDP with no near-term path to fiscal consolidation according to ING. European countries face similar pressures, particularly France where political instability compounds fiscal uncertainty. Rising interest costs are consuming larger shares of government budgets, leaving less room for countercyclical policy when the next downturn arrives.

Majcen connects these forces to a broader concern about monetary debasement. In his view, the erosion of purchasing power through inflation and currency weakness represents a slow-motion transfer of wealth from savers to debtors. Understanding how money works, he argues, is not merely an investment skill but a survival necessity.

What the Mainstream Forecasts Say

Major institutions are not projecting crisis.

Allianz expects global GDP growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, citing carryover momentum from strong U.S. and Chinese performance in 2025 according to Allianz. Deloitte projects uneven but positive growth across advanced economies, with the United States expected to maintain above-trend expansion driven by AI investment and consumer resilience according to Deloitte.

The World Bank forecasts growth of 5.7% for low-income countries in 2026, though it notes that per capita income gains remain insufficient to recover pandemic-era losses according to the World Bank.

These forecasts do not dismiss risks. Capital Economics identifies private credit markets, elevated equity valuations, and sovereign debt sustainability as potential sources of instability according to Capital Economics. ING lists ten risks for 2026 including AI-driven inflation, bond market selloffs, and renewed US-China tensions. But the base case across most institutional forecasts is continuation, not rupture.

Why Bitcoin in a Crisis Scenario

Majcen's view on Bitcoin follows logically from his crisis thesis.

In the short term, he sees Bitcoin as a risk asset that moves in tandem with liquidity conditions. Dovish central bank shifts support prices; quantitative tightening drains them. On that measure, Bitcoin behaves like high-beta tech rather than a safe haven.

But in the long term, he expects Bitcoin to decouple. As trust in fiat currencies and sovereign balance sheets erodes, capital will seek assets that do not rely on banks or governments. Bitcoin's portability, censorship resistance, and fixed supply make it a candidate for that role according to Sandmark.

Majcen predicts that Bitcoin will become the most boring asset in ten years. Until then, the path includes volatility, narrative swings, and continued integration into traditional financial infrastructure. The institutional adoption wave of 2024-2025, including ETF approvals and collateral acceptance by major banks, has fundamentally changed the asset's correlation structure.

His warning carries weight because of where it comes from. Bitcoin Suisse was founded in 2013, making it one of the longest-operating crypto-financial services firms. Majcen co-founded the company and has held leadership roles across compliance, operations, and client management. He relocated to Abu Dhabi in late 2025 to secure new licences as the firm expands beyond Switzerland's increasingly cautious regulatory environment.

The Counterargument: Structural Resilience

There are reasons to question the crisis timeline.

The regulated banking system today is better capitalised and less leveraged than before previous crises. Capital Economics notes that if trouble emerges, it is more likely to come from shadow banking and private credit rather than traditional banks.

Consumer balance sheets in many advanced economies remain strong. European households have accumulated record savings rates above 10%, providing buffers against income shocks. U.S. consumers, while facing affordability pressures, continue to spend at levels that have surprised forecasters.

Labour markets, though softening, have not collapsed. The U.S. unemployment rate at 4.6% is the highest in four years but remains historically low. Wage growth continues to outpace inflation in several major economies.

And the AI displacement thesis, while plausible, remains unproven at macroeconomic scale. Previous automation waves generated fear of mass unemployment that did not materialise as economies adapted. The same could happen again, particularly if AI creates new categories of work faster than it eliminates existing ones.

What This Means for Portfolio Construction

The disagreement between Majcen's crisis thesis and mainstream forecasts is not resolvable in advance. Both views are internally consistent. The question is how to position without knowing which is correct.

For investors who assign meaningful probability to systemic stress, the implications are straightforward: diversification across jurisdictions, asset classes, and custody arrangements becomes essential. Holdings in non-sovereign stores of value, whether Bitcoin, gold, or other hard assets, serve as insurance against scenarios where fiat-denominated instruments lose purchasing power.

For those who view crisis as unlikely, the implication is to remain invested in growth-oriented assets while maintaining liquidity to add during inevitable corrections.

Majcen's framing of Bitcoin as a generational wealth preservation tool rather than merely a speculative vehicle reflects a longer-term view. In his words, not understanding or ignoring monetary debasement will irresistibly result in mass poverty, especially in the western world.

That is a strong claim. It is also unfalsifiable in the short term. Markets will eventually reveal whether the warning was prescient or premature.

Final Take

A Swiss crypto pioneer warning of financial crisis is not news in itself. Industry participants have made similar claims for years, often incorrectly.

What makes Majcen's view worth considering is the specificity of the mechanism: AI-driven labour displacement interacting with elevated sovereign debt and eroding trust in fiat currencies. That is a structural thesis, not a timing call.

Whether the crisis arrives in three years or ten, or not at all, the question of how to preserve purchasing power across decades remains relevant. Bitcoin's advocates believe the asset answers that question. Its critics believe it creates new risks while failing to address old ones.

Both sides will continue to accumulate evidence. In the meantime, the market will do what it always does: price uncertainty imperfectly, correct violently, and reward those who prepared for outcomes they could not predict.